Author

Sachek A.G.

Title of article

Principles of criminological modeling (by the example of ensuring economic security in Belarus)

Section

Section 4. Criminology

Issue, year

3 (33) 2015

Abstract

Predicting the crime development and determining the most vulnerable spheres of social life are among the main tasks of criminological science. The modeling method is frequently used in different branches of knowledge to predict phenomena and processes. During the 20th century modeling has become one of the main methods for predicting social and economic processes. There are some preconditions for considering criminological modeling as a separate direction of criminology in Belarus. Criminological modeling method is a method of criminological prediction, which is based on building statistical and dynamic models describing the crime dynamics depending on the mutual interaction of factors affecting it. The use of the criminological modeling methods is based on building a model of possible situation. The model parameters are associated with the factors of the studied event. When varying these parameters, we obtain the information on significance of the separate factors and their mutual influence. The optimal correlation between the event consequences and proper scale of law enforcement agencies’ activities are determined basing on these calculations. The main functions of modeling of economic security ensuring are activity targeting (state model building) and working out an algorithm of counteraction to criminal encroachments on it. The author proves the necessity to take account of the intrastructural changes of the criminogenic threats to economic security (possibility to change the counteraction algorithm). Criminological modeling allows to create a base for forming state policy in the sphere of crime fighting and economic security ensuring.

Keywords

security, economic security, crime, threat modeling, a complex system, a method, system component, parameter, variable, analysis, synthesis, prediction.

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